tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1051713021757781960.post3265861298192401694..comments2023-10-31T10:57:37.652+00:00Comments on Epiphenom: Why Rabbi Sacks is wrong on religion and fertilityEpiphenomhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05420404206189437710noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1051713021757781960.post-58189468043727042010-01-21T21:17:31.123+00:002010-01-21T21:17:31.123+00:00Alexander, Iwhat I mean is that I am not helping y...<b>Alexander,</b> Iwhat I mean is that I am not helping you by having lots of children. You don't benefit from it - in fact if anything you suffer because of increased competition for resources.<br /><br />Now, that's not entirely true - it's good to have young people around, because we depend on other people. But I don't think anyone has children so that I can have a happy life in old age. That's not the motivation.<br /><br />So if that's not the motivation, what is? Well, it can only be selfish.Epiphenomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05420404206189437710noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1051713021757781960.post-3617073590060257962010-01-21T09:53:58.599+00:002010-01-21T09:53:58.599+00:00Thanks for interesting post and brain training!
I...Thanks for interesting post and brain training!<br /><br />I'm not a demographer or sociologist so I will not discuss statistical data (maybe there are some collected raw data to verify?)<br /><br />But two more doubts about your conclusion <i>Having a large family is not self-sacrifice. It's the ultimate in selfishness.</i><br /><br />1) In "local-generation" sense (as for a large family parent) it seems to be very questionable: a parent should spend himself for their children, less money, less time etc. <br /><br />2) In "many-generations" sense I think Mycenaean civilization experience extrapolation is not correct. Simply because due to Christianity we have Science that can help intensively and with solicitude explore the Nature.<br /><br />What do you think about that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1051713021757781960.post-88694564500580697822009-11-24T21:17:33.805+00:002009-11-24T21:17:33.805+00:00Samuel, info on Africa's ecological footprint ...Samuel, info on Africa's ecological footprint is here: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/africa/ I haven't read it though!<br /><br />On the economist page that Michael linked to, they explain that all over the world, then number of children that women want is less than the average number of children in that country (except in countries with very small families). In other words, if women had more power, they would have fewer children.<br /><br />In Iran, they cut right back on family planning after the revolution. Family sizes shot up but are now plummeting.<br /><br />Bottom line: in poor nations, children are an investment that pays dividends. Not so in wealthy countries.Epiphenomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05420404206189437710noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1051713021757781960.post-45208699399481758692009-11-24T16:36:57.809+00:002009-11-24T16:36:57.809+00:00Hi Samuel,
thanks for the comment! Without wantin...Hi Samuel,<br /><br />thanks for the comment! Without wanting to interfere in your questions to Tom, I thought you (and other readers interested in global demography) might like this link from Mini-Epiphenom:<br />http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14743589<br /><br />Thanks for the interest, best wishes!Michael Blumehttp://www.blume-religionswissenschaft.de/english/index_english.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1051713021757781960.post-59799386018281536352009-11-24T07:29:35.262+00:002009-11-24T07:29:35.262+00:00Only slightly on topic.... but with some of the Ma...Only slightly on topic.... but with some of the Malthusian predictions going on out there (such as anonymous about Africa and the ME's biological capacity)....<br /><br />Tom - why is it that people who do not have the resources to have multiple children have multiple children? With the widespread access to birth control - what are we missing?<br /><br />Is Catholicism in Africa really having that much of a depressing effect on birth control usage - or is there something else at work?<br /><br />I am all for people having families, and even large ones. But don't think for a second I am advocating multiple teenage pregnancies.<br /><br />I think Michael's balanced approach is the way to go. But what sociologists and psychologists need to be finding out is why with the prevalence of effective birth control, these countries with EXTREMELY UNSUSTAINABLE demographic explosions are continuing to grow. Is religion really the driving force? I know Catholicism is anti-B/C but I don't know Islam's views on it (another large religion in Africa/ME).Samuelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06102533726798834757noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1051713021757781960.post-70605577549607738782009-11-23T09:59:14.538+00:002009-11-23T09:59:14.538+00:00Hi Anonymous,
yes, you are illustrating the very ...Hi Anonymous,<br /><br />yes, you are illustrating the very point Sacks made. As secular Europe is exploding, highly religious regions as i.e. Africa or the ME are demographically expanding. It's not religion that's dying out... You (and @Tom?) might be interested in the famous "Sacred and Secular" from Inglehart & Norris describing the demographically expanding gap between religious and seculars worldwide.<br /><br />Personally, I would prefer a more balanced development: More education, freedom and wealth in Africa and Asia leading to lower birth rates and less violent fundamentalisms, and more religious pluralism and (scientific) respect in European societies leading to (more) demographic stability and successful integration of immigrants. I think, extremes may lead to nowhere.Michael Blumehttp://www.blume-religionswissenschaft.de/english/index_english.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1051713021757781960.post-81037666740613934572009-11-23T00:27:15.922+00:002009-11-23T00:27:15.922+00:00Do you know what the biological capacity if Africa...Do you know what the biological capacity if Africa and the middle easy is? <br />In The Economist magazine there was recetly an article in which it was stated that Africa population is expected to grow to 2 Billion by 2050. By 1850 Africa was home to just 100 mio people. <br />To my knowlege these numbers are just possible through food aid mainly from Europe and the US, highly industrialized farming makes is possible. <br />And what about the middle east? most ME countries are also expiriancing huge population growth but have little agrarian potencial. <br />the same can be said about pakistan. When the financial crises started it was one of the first countries to get an IMF creditline, because it imports a big part of its food and energy needs for its nearly 200 mio inhabitants. At the moment of the crisrs, pakistan was not even able anymore to pay for that. <br /><br />what happend anyway with the food crises? will it come back?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1051713021757781960.post-7382760393738244172009-11-19T06:45:20.994+00:002009-11-19T06:45:20.994+00:00Hi Tom,
no, unfortunately not, it's not "...Hi Tom,<br /><br />no, unfortunately not, it's not "just a pause". Since 1971, we had more deaths than births in any year and the birth rate has "stabilized" about 1.4 children per women - meaning that three adults are followed by two children. In the meantime, more than a third of the children up to age 6 are children of immigrants, here in Stuttgart more than 50% (my wife is of Turkish origin, too, but the integration problems are accelerating). Especially in Eastern Germany, the closure of villages has begun and it has spread into rural regions of the West. Growing numbers of old people are living completely isolated, schools and kindergartens are closed (I had to participate in a closure once as a City councillor myself). At the same time, educated Germans are migrating out, i.e. to Switzerland and the US. I am certainly not an apocalyptic, but German society is actually imploding.Michael Blumehttp://www.blume-religionswissenschaft.de/english/index_english.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1051713021757781960.post-48998089211694738722009-11-18T22:27:59.894+00:002009-11-18T22:27:59.894+00:00Hi Michael, do you think the low fertility in Germ...Hi Michael, do you think the low fertility in Germany is temporary, at least to some extent. People used to have children at a young age. Now they have children later. The result is a kind of 'pause' of low fertility, before a recovery. I wonder whether Europe's low fertility is not quite teh future issue you would expect from a simple linear extrapolation of trends.Epiphenomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05420404206189437710noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1051713021757781960.post-27495385557830652072009-11-18T20:40:08.352+00:002009-11-18T20:40:08.352+00:00Hi Tom,
living amidst an imploding population (Ge...Hi Tom,<br /><br />living amidst an imploding population (Germany), I am not agreeing to your negative view on large families - but I agree with your demographic findings!<br /><br />There is a (potentially) strong effect of religiosity on fertility, but it normally doesn't surface in monoreligious, modernizing states - for exactly the reasons you quoted! Italy, Spain and Greece are good examples of states who didn't adjust their family policies to the changing needs of families (especially educated mothers) - curbing their birth rates partially because of traditional Church politics. In contrast, France adopted very modern family politics. In all of these countries, the religious do have more children - but monopolist Churches had strong negative effects. (You might compare that with the low birth rates of Yehovas Witnesses and the New Apostolic Church in Switzerland in my study you wrote about - strong traditionalism is beaten by more flexible communities.) To speak with Hayek: it's about the right balance of rigidity and flexibility.<br /><br />Keep up the good work, best wishes!Michael Blumehttp://www.blume-religionswissenschaft.de/english/index_english.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1051713021757781960.post-23735524559952750552009-11-16T21:36:50.967+00:002009-11-16T21:36:50.967+00:00Great post!Great post!Samuelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06102533726798834757noreply@blogger.com